Author Topic: Re: KCSF Free Calculator Feedback  (Read 24285 times)

BMull

  • Expert Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45
Re: KCSF Free Calculator Feedback
« on: December 04, 2012, 08:39:56 PM »
**Edited by the Administrator - This thread is a follow on/split topic from: http://kschildsupportforum.com/kansas-child-support-calculators-and-forms-%28licensedpaid%29/bradley-software-redoux/ **


I agree with both of you on this topic.  I believe the guidelines lack sufficient clarity and guidance on the topic of income levels between the tabled values.  I think this particular item should be brought to the committee to request further clarification in the next issue of the guidelines.  If I recall correctly, there were some comments to this effect in the public surveys and possibly even some discussion amongst the committee members.  Maybe (Guru) this issue should be noted here on the website as a requested change during the next guidelines review.

As the author of the MS Excel spreadsheet/tool found here, I'll say there are definitely a few different ways to interpret the guidelines in this regard, as Dennis has pointed out.  Guru, you are also correct that my method has applied a method most consistent with the way tax liability is referenced in the 1040i document.  But, based on the comments I have read here, I may want to consider updating my method.

Dennis, I agree, the logarithmic method is the most fool proof and accurate way to calculate child support.  I strongly disagree with any method using linear interpolation of a logarithmic function though.  I haven't plotted it myself, but I'm fairly certain this would lead to a calculated child support amount which is higher than the logarithmic function.  The reason I chose to use the method I have is because, as Guru has pointed out, the language in the guidelines do not require rounding at all.  And as a Pro Se myself, I like the ability to refer directly to the tabled values.

This is a great thread.  I can appreciate the opinions and technical level of discussion.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 09:36:22 PM by Guru »

djmlaw

  • Gold Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18
Re: Re: Bradley Software redoux
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2012, 12:10:05 PM »
Dear BMull:

Nice to meet you.  I have a rule of thumb not to comment on other person's code except directly to that person so I am using this format to point out an error in your spreadsheet.  Sedgwick County has 2 child support collection rates:  4% for S.R.S. and 2.5% for Court Trustee with no cap.  Johnson County Court Trustee has a $10.00 a month collection cap so the child support collection fee can't be greater than $10.00.  Your code adds the cap as an additional fee but this fixed amount is a true cap.  For example, child support of $1,000 in Sedgwick County has a Court Trustee rate of 2.5% for a collection fee of $25.00.  In Johnson County, this same case would have its collection fee capped at $10.00.  Incidently, I don't practice in Johnson County so all of this is rumor.

I would also call your attention to my web site at www.pelkowskychildsupportcalculator.com which uses the Pelkoswski algorith.  Note that my Asian Indian friends put a y in the web site's name rather than an i and sometimes the web site has navigational problems.  I no longer support this site but am working on another to replace it but you can do the Pelkowski algorithm on-line (when it works).

Dennis

BMull

  • Expert Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45
Re: Re: Bradley Software redoux
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2012, 08:59:37 PM »
Hi Dennis,

Thanks for bringing that to my attention.  I'll admit I didn't to a lot of research around the state to see how collection fees are applied.  I know how they are applied in district 18, but I'm not sure how other districts do it.  I intentionally added the "flat fee" feature to try to account for scenarios where a percentage wasn't applicable.  I hadn't considered the use of a cap, but I believe I'll do that.

If my tool is to be useful to more people, its quite possible I need to consider additional provisions for enforcement fees.  Maybe I should make a full featured section on enforcement fee to make the tool useful for people like yourself?

I will look into the change you've requested.  I'll be adding more options with regards to indexing the table lookups, or using the  method.  My sheet does not support income past the tabled values, so in order for it apply to more cases, I'll have to include the logarithmic equations anyway.  Some people love options - myself included.  But, others like to keep things simple, so I've tried to keep the tool as simple as possible.

I really appreciate your comments on the spreadsheet.  I created the tool and used it for many years until other parents and even attorneys asked me if I could send it to them.  After that, features were requested to make the tool more versitile.  I'm always up for a challenge, so I've enjoyed the various requests.  If you can think of anything else that might be useful, I'll definitely look into it.

Brian

Guru

  • Expert Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 366
Re: Re: Bradley Software redoux
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2012, 11:01:39 PM »
Thanks for chiming in here, Brian.  I know there are a lot of people using your calculator and I know how passionate you are about this entire subject.  Since, I can see this thread possibly growing into a tangent thread, I can split this or even relocate it under the Calculator topic if that would be helpful.  Let me know.

Dennis, I took a look at the link you sent.  It wasn't much more than a few form boxes and a calculated output.  Was there supposed to be a full featured calculator there?  If so, it didn't work for me.  Is this the software you've been using?  Have you used Brian's software or do you think it could be made to work for you?  Obviously we don't make a dime off of anything posted here, but it seems the more people use Brian's tool, the more feedback we get.  Nearly every time a user has requested a new feature, Brian has met that request and then some.

djmlaw

  • Gold Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18
Re: Re: Bradley Software redoux
« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2012, 12:48:10 PM »
Dear Brian:
Be very careful if you decide to use the Pelkowski algorithm rather than the Guidelines 12 pages of tables for five reasons.
This is her presentation of the algorithm in page 6 of her Appendix C:
SUPPORT FUNCTIONS FOR A CHILD AGED 12-18
C = Support in dollars per month per child.
I = Combined gross monthly income
^ = Exponentiation
# of   Poverty   Income up to      Poverty Level          Income Above
Child.   Level      Poverty Level      to $15,500          $15,500
1   $1,550      0.2108750156(I)   0.7756344686(I)^0.822704337   2.795182393(I)^0.689838232
2   $1,850      0.1552451982(I)   0.6676036944(I)^0.806101237   2.049742412(I)^0.689838232
3   $2,150     0.1346616608(I)   0.6060937962(I)^0.803958609   1.822812799(I)^0.689838232
4   $2,500     0.111153846(I)   0.5193605794(I)^0.803958609   1.561964695(I)^0.689838232
5   $2,800     0.09753123053(I)   0.46266702(I)    ^0.803958609   1.391460125(I)^0.689838232
6   $3,100     0.0862563277(I)   0.4208984696(I)^0.803958609   1.265842223(I)^0.689838232
For younger children equations multiply these functions by .80 for ages 0-5 and by .92 for ages 6-11.

First, there is a significant digit problem.  Note that (Child = 4, Column 3) and (Child = 5, Column 3) have 9 significant digits while the rest of Column 3 has 10 significant digits.  Similarly, (Child = 5, Column 4) has 8 significant digits while the rest of Column 4 has 10 significant digits.  It is possible that this last entry could have trailing “00” but if that is the case, then you put in the trailing “00.”

Similarly, there could be a trailing “0” for the 2 examples in Column 3but you are supposed to show the trailing “0”s just as she has the low age multiplier as 0.80.

Second, the actual equations for Columns 4 and 5 are technically correct but potentially very misleading.  Exponentials are not communitative except for some rare examples.  Thus 8^2 is 16 but 2^8 is 256.  Her algorithm for Columns 4 and 5 is (Factor A)*(Combined gross monthly income)^(Exponential Factor).  Since ^ has a higher priority than *, the ^ is performed first and then the * so you go right to let rather than  left to right.

For example, for a 3 child family with combined gross monthly income of $6,600.00, the Base Child Support is 0.6060937962*($6,600.00)^0.803858609 or 0.6060937962*$1,175.908 or $712.711.  This value is rounded to $713 which is the table entry for the age 12-18 child for a combined income of $6,600.00 in the 3 child table.

However, if the user starts on the left hand side, the results are 0.6060937962*($6,600.00)^0.803858609 or $4,000.219^ 0.803858609 or $786.260 which would be rounded to $786 but not match the table value of $713.

The good Doctor has done nothing wrong in a technical sense and everything wrong in a practical sense.  Everyone starts the calculations on the left hand side if only to read the equation.  Columns 4 and 5 should have the format of (I)^0.803958609*.6060937962 and Column 3 of (I)^1.0*0.1346616608.  (I use the notation of an underline to show that the digits extend indefinitely.  Thus 3.3 * 3 is  10 rather than 9.9.)

Third, the tables are misleading.  Go back to $6,600 combined gross income example where the Base Child Support is $712.711 directly from the Pelkowski algorithm.  The low age table entry should be 80% of $712.711 or $570.169 or $570.  But the table has the value of $571 and note that 80% of $713 is $570.40 which rounds to $570 rather than the table value of $571.  Doctor Pelkowski’s spreadsheet must be rounding in some strange manner (I guess).  This means that using the Pelkowski algorithm with the 80%/92% rule does NOT generate the Guidelines Tables because of this occasional $1 difference.

Fourth, remember the first point that her table doesn’t have the same significant digits (8 in one case and 9 in two others rather than the normal 10 digits).  Do we really care?  No in general but note that the low and middle age categories multiple the high age category by 80. and 92%.  Going back to my college days, I don’t think that my professors would be overwhelmed by my determination of the mass of carbon in an experiment was 0.80*1.23456789 = .987654312 grams when the experiment used up 20.% of the carbon based on other tests.  The professor might point out that a better answer is .99 grams and call it a day as one of my multipliers was accurate to only 2 digits.  (The difference between accuracy and precision-see Wikipedia:  Accuracy and precision.)

Fifth, maybe I was wrong.  Maybe Doctor Pelkowski had actually meant 80.00000000% so I read her report very carefully and this is the table in her report on page 5 that addresses these two multipliers (I added the last 3 lines):

               Age Group 0-5             Age Group 6-11   
Income Level      2005      2009      2005      2009
Low         76.28%      80.60%      86.05%      92.08%
Middle         80.65%      82.80%      89.05%      93.23%
High         85.09%      87.86%      91.17%      94.84%
Average      80.67%      83.75%      88.76%      93.38%
2008 Guidelines         76.%                86.%
2012 Guidelines Value         80.%                92.%.

The age multiplier is the rounded down three year’s old age difference value.  I think that the correct multiplier should be the averages which are 83.75% for the 0-5 and 93.38% for the 6-11.  However, this shows that these two multipliers could be accurate to 4 significant digits.  Of course what it really shows is that the 2016 Guidelines will increase these 2 multipliers so there is another child support increase built into the system or else declare that there is really no age difference which reduces the table size by 2/3rds and just keep the highest age bracket.

Good luck Brian

KTM

  • Expert Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 215
Re: Re: Bradley Software redoux
« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2012, 02:27:08 PM »
Guru.

I think it would be helpful to move the technical portion of this thread and the parts not related to the bradley Software.

I am not a person who is versed in statistics or computer code or algorithm.

I suspect most of this is a thread discussion for specialists. All I need is a finished product that is consistently used and applied. I think that would be true for the average person too.

Guru

  • Expert Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 366
Re: KCSF Free Calculator Feedback
« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2012, 09:37:50 PM »
I hope everyone's links to the split thread works.  Please let me know if you have any trouble.

Dennis, have you contacted Dr. Pelkowski about the concerns you have with significant digits and rounding?

BMull

  • Expert Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45
Re: KCSF Free Calculator Feedback
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2012, 11:59:09 PM »
Thanks for splitting the thread Guru.  The links worked fine for me.

Dennis, I can definitely appreciate your attention to detail here.  Firstly, I've interrogated the economic data in as much detail as was availble to me over the past many years.  I find there are many assumptions that can alter the amount of child support by a few dollars one way or the other, and sometimes much more than that.  I can see where Dr. Pelkowski had to made a decision as to what assumptions to make, and how many significant digits would be required to best fit the economic data while keeping the functions concise.

Speaking to your comment about significant digits.  I would agree that technically speaking, the exponent trailing zeros should be carried, and the scaling percentages should be presented to the same degree of precision.  However, even if the trailing zeros are carried out to infinity, the calculation doesn't change, only the precision of the solution.  Since we are aiming at a solution rounded to the nearest whole dollar, the trailing zeros will not effect the result, but the degree of precision used to round the solution may.  I have made the assupmtion that the degree of precision is implied at 10 places.  So if only 8 or 9 are given, I assume the additional digits are zeros.

Keep in mind that most computers these days are 32 bit (64 bit is still emerging).  Which means even a PC can only express an integer of 2^32 or 4294967296.  When you are calculating a floating point number, you must reduce the number of significant digits to allow for the exponent, so being able to carry floating point precision past about 6 significant digits is beyond 32 bit computing.  It is possible to create a program to store more precision, but I think that discussion is beyond the scope of our discussion.  I target my comment around 32 bit computing because I would suspect that the vast majority of child support awards have been calculated using 32 bit computing using IEEE single precision binary floating-point.

Your comment three about rounding and the scaling percentages leads me to believe that Dr. Pelkowski has probably performed all calculations in a spreadsheet and even though a certain number of digits can be shown in a cell, more precision is carried.  So, its possible that 80.1% was used to derive the tables, but 80% has been published.  Again, I believe the prescribed equations were given as a means to calculate child support beyond the tabled values rather than to derive the tables.  However, I am in complete agreement with you that the presented equations should allow for the exact derivation of the tabled values to eliminate discussions such as this one.  If they do not, it generates technical questions and ultimately different calculation methods do not arrive at the same child support award.

A side note - I speak only from my personal experience and observation, but it does not appear to me that the child support committee is attended by anyone other than Dr. Pelkowski who posesses the level of expertise to discover such mathematical errors.  There have been small things recently which should have been caught before release.  Such as the committees publishing "percentage child support increase" which showed change of only 0.10.  Having performed all the calculations myself, I knew this really meant 10.0%.  But, when someone technically inclined reads a report which clearly states "percentage child support increase," the data is technically incorrect.  Keeping these kinds of errors out of the guidelines is important.

I'm not sure how to respond about your comment five other than I would suspect the committee went with their best judgement and the advisement of the economist to arrive at the 92% and 80% values based on the presented data.  I would bet a few numbers were presented, and the committee voted to adopt whatever seemed to minimize complications.  But, for me, it makes no difference if I multiply by .80 or .8065.  Maybe, the simpler number looks better on paper to some.

I can see your second point, but I would have to kindly disagree.  In my profession (engineering), I see numbers like these every day.  the number X*Y^Z is very clear because of order of operations.  If the equation were written Y^Z*X, as you have suggested, I would be very confused.  Now if the same equation were written as (Y^Z)*X, it would then again be perfectly clear.  Same as X*(Y^Z).  With the parenthases you can see the commutative property better.  I don't think there is anything technically wrong with the presentation of the equations, as you have also mentioned.  Whether the equations have been presented for a more technical audience, is up to the audience I suppose.